Unexpected Returns Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles eBook Ed Easterling
Download As PDF : Unexpected Returns Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles eBook Ed Easterling 
Winner ForeWord Magazine Bronze Award for Best Business/Economics Book of the Year. This investment book uses extensive full-color graphics to explain the fundamentals of the markets-an essential resource before reading how-to books or engaging investment advice. It is a unique combination of investment art and investment science that enables the reader to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of current market conditions.
Editorial Reviews
From the Publisher
"Ed Easterling has given the world of investing the single best, easy-to-read, study of stock market cycles of which I know. He lays out a path for you to find your own Unexpected Returns, showing you how to confidently navigate the waters of market volatility. Serious investors will devour this book and profit. It should be required reading for investment professionals."
- John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Investments; author of Bull's Eye Investing
"Unexpected Returns provides a broad, deep, and provocative exploration of the factors that determine stock market investment returns over a person's lifetime. Of special interest to me, as a Federal Reserve policy advisor on monetary policy, is Easterling's exploration of the critical role of low and stable inflation as a key determinant of stock market performance."
- Harvey Rosenblum, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
"Unexpected Returns is at once a penetrating analysis of more than a century of stock market experience and a realistic guide to how we may expect the markets to perform in the years ahead. Easterling's findings and conclusions are grounded on the best economic and financial thinking of our time. This is a book for the serious investor and student of the markets."
- Richard Sylla, Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets, Stern School of Business, New York University; co-author of A History of Interest Rates
"The stock market is one of the few places on earth where people become more excited to buy when things are expensive, and more anxious to sell when things are cheap. Ed Easterling has penned a masterful accounting about why this is so wealth-destructive, presented without preconceived notion or bias."
- Bill Mann, Senior Editor, Investing, The Motley Fool
"People are accustomed to the vagaries of market cycles. Far too few realize that these are subsumed within secular bull and bear markets, spanning decades not years. Ed Easterling has done a fine job of describing how these long cycles work and how the investor can plan investment strategies accordingly." Rob Arnott, Chairman, Research Affiliates, LLC; Editor, Financial Analysts Journal
From the Inside Flap
Why?
Why is the stock market acting differently in the 2000s than in the 1980s and 1990s?
Before you read any how-to investment books or seek financial advice, read Unexpected Returns, the essential resource for investors and investment professionals who want to understand how and why the financial markets are not the same now as they were in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition to explaining the fundamentals, this book takes you on a graphic journey through the seasons of the market, tying together economics and finance to explain the stock market's cycles. Using comprehensive full-color charts and graphs, it offers an in-depth exploration of what has changed over the past five years - and what you can do about it to avoid disappointment with your investments. This unique combination of investment science and investment art will enable you to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the current financial markets. Based on years of meticulous research, it provides the sensible conclusions that will drive your future investment choices and give you the confidence to rely on your investment outlook, whatever your financial strategy.
Unexpected Returns Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles eBook Ed Easterling
5/10Repetitive and quite elementary, with a dearth of actionable intelligence or even further reading on it; too enthralled with economic orthodoxy while at the same time attempting a critique of it, relying on flawed statistical methods and historical measurements cast in to the future. Three of the 3.125 stars come from the author's repeated analysis of and insistence on the superiority of absolute return strategies (options are mentioned early in the book - and then never elaborated on!) to indexing for the sophisticated investor: the problem is, the sophisticated investor knows this, the material is presented to a novice investor or client of a money manager, and while the sophisticated investor already knows how to reduce market risk, to hedge various factors, etc., he also knows most of the material in the book, where the novice investor, who can learn from the material, is unaware of such strategies and is not introduced to them here.
The book can be better reconstructed, with increased rigour and practical applicability, by instead reading Shiller's Irrational Exuberance on the inefficiency of markets, and some of Nicholas Taleb's books on the nigh-uselessness of CAPM and MPT in real markets (especially during corrections, when their benefits are most needed, they most fail to work: witness the 'ten-sigma' fall of LTCM), a smattering of behavioral finance and other works demolishing Fama's EMH, and an introductory book on hedging and options such as 'The Volatility Surface', 'Options as a Strategic Investment', 'Options and Derivatives' by Hull, or any of a dozen others.
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Unexpected Returns Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles eBook Ed Easterling Reviews
This work must be read in conjunction with the crestmont research website which provides updates to the charts illustrated in the book. A great analysis on investing in bear markets. These stratigies coupled with absolute return investing should be part of many portfolios in these challanging economic times. If this book was revised to reflect current market conditions it could be one of the most important works on investment. Michael J Gorman JD,CPA,CHfC
A clear explanation of the terms and processes every investor, whether active or passive, should be familiar with. A good explanation of how the economy and the market interact. A relatively quick and important read, even for those who buy and hold through mutual funds.
Unxpected Returns is a modern investor must read. Investing in a secular bear market requires much more knowledge than the "buy and hold" strategy of the 80's and 90's. If you desire the type of returns needed to accumulate wealth and retire secure you need to understand the concepts in Unexpected Returns.
This is a fantastic book. Gives great reasons as to why future returns are going to be low. Also talks about the critical need to move from Buy and Hold to a more skill based investing approach (i.e. trading on TA ?). The only negative, I see is that he does not elaborate much on what skills/techniques are needed to move to skills based technique. I guess..for that you can invest through his firm.
nice i love it
Easterling has written a good book. The scholarship is there. Print quality is excellent and graphs are pleasing to the eye. On the downside,the author repeats himself unnecessarily at several points. The data on long term variability in the market and PE ratios is useful and illuminating but one must remember these are correlations and not numbers produced in a scientific experiment. Cause and effect can not be determined. Readers should note that the book is about the market as a whole and not individual stocks. Skilled (or perhaps lucky) investors in individual stocks can still beat the averages even in periods where the market is producing small or negative returns. (Easterling's solution to a so-so market is to invest in Hedge Funds, the downside of which makes many investors nervous). Nevertheless, this is a useful book with a broad, scholarly perspective on stock market behavior. You will be a better investor for reading it.
Ed does a great job of looking back at the markets over the past 100 years and showing what the true averages are for things like return, P/E, dividends, inflation, interest rates etc... and how they all tie together to move the markets. He focuses on a much more long-term view than most other authors you will come across, his reason for this is simply based on his belief in that secular cycles have such dramatic impacts on our investment portfolios. After reading this book I definitely feel more confident in my ability to understand what the next decade should hold from an investment standpoint.
I have read many investment books over the years and I have only come across 3 authors that I truly value
1. Mike Stathis (for pretty much everything)
2. Ed Easterling (for understaning secular stock market cycles)
3. George Dagnino (business cycle)
I definitely recommend this book to any serious investor that wants to gain a better perspective on what drives the markets long term.
5/10
Repetitive and quite elementary, with a dearth of actionable intelligence or even further reading on it; too enthralled with economic orthodoxy while at the same time attempting a critique of it, relying on flawed statistical methods and historical measurements cast in to the future. Three of the 3.125 stars come from the author's repeated analysis of and insistence on the superiority of absolute return strategies (options are mentioned early in the book - and then never elaborated on!) to indexing for the sophisticated investor the problem is, the sophisticated investor knows this, the material is presented to a novice investor or client of a money manager, and while the sophisticated investor already knows how to reduce market risk, to hedge various factors, etc., he also knows most of the material in the book, where the novice investor, who can learn from the material, is unaware of such strategies and is not introduced to them here.
The book can be better reconstructed, with increased rigour and practical applicability, by instead reading Shiller's Irrational Exuberance on the inefficiency of markets, and some of Nicholas Taleb's books on the nigh-uselessness of CAPM and MPT in real markets (especially during corrections, when their benefits are most needed, they most fail to work witness the 'ten-sigma' fall of LTCM), a smattering of behavioral finance and other works demolishing Fama's EMH, and an introductory book on hedging and options such as 'The Volatility Surface', 'Options as a Strategic Investment', 'Options and Derivatives' by Hull, or any of a dozen others.
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